It's prediction time, and the only results I have are from Dixville Notch, which I hear went for General W.K. Clark. Without further adieu, although these are issued on the basis of 'probably' and may be subject to Imus-style "Uh, Charles, I picked the winner" revisions:

First Place: Senator John F. Kerry
He's got momentum from Iowa, and I haven't heard a lot of negatives about him lately. Even if his campaign is decelerating, I think he'll be able to cross the line first.

Insert a small gap here. Five to ten points at most?

Second Place: Senator John Edwards/Governor Howard Dean
I can't figure out who's going to be next, and I expect these two to tangle over it. Edwards has been a 'favorite' of mine for a while, because of his background; I expected him to be a capable candidate, and I had been wondering why he hadn't caught on earlier. It is true that Americans respond to negative campaigning, so he might be in trouble down the road. In any event, I've read one story that indicates there are attempts at friendly ties between Senators Kerry & Edwards, which may indicate some sort of link in the future. This could be trouble.

On the other hand, it seems that Howard Dean has managed to temporarily skate past the "I have a scream" speech. The power of the penitent man is often considerable, and if Dean has successfully put his anger schtick on the Atkins diet, he could theoretically begin his necessary comeback here. I couldn't help feeling sorry for the guy, and his minions may yet regroup.

I'm leaning towards Edwards second in order to protect against the possibility that Dean's negatives blunt the first wave of his comeback.

Fourth Place: General W.K. Clark
Not far behind the other two will be General Clark. I don't expect him to beat these other two, but he'll be "in the draft" of third place, a car length or two back. I would not expect this finish to be fatal, but he doesn't need these kinds of finishes. At best, he could squeak past the third place man, whoever that is. As for General Clark down the stretch, there may be problems. The Hugh Shelton thing may come back and get him, as might other things from his recent past.

Fifth Place: Senator Joseph Lieberman
Joementum? No. As much as I hate to say it, Senator Lieberman's ship is riddled full of holes near the waterline, and the machinery, assuming there ever was any, has been reduced to a wreck. I wanted Lieberman to run and be the nominee, but that's not going to happen. I'm not the Democrat electorate. Funny, a Southern Christian---embodiment of the Moral Majority, the Christian Coalition, and the Religious Right---wouldn't mind seeing a Jew on the top of a national ticket. Hee hee, I'm more progressive than the Left. Disraeli and outreforming the reformers, indeed. RN would be proud. (Actually, we checked. Southerners are supposed to hate Jews. Would you kindly stick to the stereotypes as laid down by The New York Times and Hollywood, please? --Ed.)

There you have it. To borrow from Leonard Postosties of Leonard's Losers, "Percy, get me out of here!"

UPDATE: It seems that these predictions have been issued almost completely ignorant of recent polling, so I may wind up looking like an idiot. Nonetheless, I stand by my picks and they have my complete confidence. That is, until they're proven wrong. Chuck, have Bernard and Lou get the tapes of this one...

Posted by: Country Pundit at 01:31 PM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
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1 I can't believe Clark came in 3rd in front of Edwards and Lieberman. I dunno what to think about that. Of course, he had been living there for months. Still. I wouldn't trust Clark to walk my dog.

Posted by: Calliope at January 28, 2004 08:00 AM (tUDUD)

2 That's the advantage of skipping Iowa. I'd almost go out on a limb and say, "Is that the best you could do, General Clark?" Lamar Alexander tried that, the whole "live in a single primary State" and it didn't work for him, either. That's unfortunate for the organizations in either case, so... Luckily, I managed to hedge my bets almost enough to where I wasn't wrong. Yes, there's a large bonfire of Zip disks in the back room. No, that's not relevant to my accuracy. Eighteen-minute gap and all that. I think I'll steal the theme espoused by Joe Lieberman and say that I was completely accurate. If he can say there's a three-way race for third, I can say I'm completely accurate. I remain uncertain about Wesley Clark's fitness for office, and if I ever met the man, I'd certainly ask him about it.

Posted by: The Country Pundit at January 28, 2004 12:30 PM (XIU5s)

3 LOL. I was thinking earlier as I was mindlessly brushing paint on my house that the way Dems measure 'winning' Edwards can claim he came in third.

Posted by: Calliope at January 28, 2004 01:12 PM (tUDUD)

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