I've been thinking the last week or so that we need to just flat out kill Moqtada al-Sadr and quit wasting time. What I didn't figure out, however, was how to get around the consequences of that, i.e. a period of increased violence and the likely creation of yet another "martyr of Islam".

My bright idea was to endorse letting the guy off the hook for the time being. He would get to save some face by backing off from his current uprising and show humility to this Sistani fellow, followed by an "isn't-that-awful" car accident or something a few months later that just happens to claim his life. Darn. Funny how that happens, ain't it?

Anyways, I found a better solution that brings an evil Calvin grin:

You can't give al-Sadr his own zone (for obvious reasons), but you can promise it to Sadr's successor. Some greedy underling will betray him in a short period of time, or Sadr will be too busy watching his back to lead any kind of rebellion.

All we need to do is have Bremer or the CPA spokesman make some casual remark that while we have nothing to say to al-Sadr, we are interested in discussions with the man who succeeds him. This can be done shortly, because we've put a whipping on al-Sadr, enough for him to say 'no mas' to some extent. If luck holds, he's got some disgusted subordinates who want to take his place, some of whom might be able to try. This works on the "colonels shoot the generals" notion that Tom Clancy used in Executive Orders and the like, so it's at least plausible in this instance.

I don't know if this would work, but I'm really fond of it. It's a pleasant way to get al-Sadr's attention in a way that turns him inward, and which basically amounts to tossing a bundle of dynamite over the fence into a hostile neighbor's back yard, with a detonator that will go off, if at all, when it feels like it. And best of all, we could repeat the thing if necessary, assuming we honor the initial promise, which I don't categorically suggest.

The obvious problem is replacing the devil we know with the devil we don't, and I'm not entirely convinced that such a course of action is called for here. Had al-Sadr gotten more backing from non-subordinate forces, then maybe we could consider him skilled and crafty, in need of the bundle of dynamite. As it is, he's not the greatest operator in the world, and apparently couldn't talk anyone else into helping him. It may be better to have the bumbler you know. Still, it'd be funny if nothing else.

Heh heh heh.

This is part of a message board for the blog of a guy named TMLutas, who I found through den Beste.

Posted by: Country Pundit at 09:03 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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